Did you follow the old Wall Street adage of "Sell in May and Go Away."

Moody's cut the rating of government bonds from AAA to AA .... causing interest rates to falter.

The federal, state and local debt levels just continue to move higher moving Minsky's moment closer to impacting the US and world economy.

In May  2025, the market left most investors without a solid rock-hard forward looking game plan with all the vagaries of government spending, tariffs and possible increasing military conflicts arising throughout the world.

It is not a time to put one's head in the sand and say "things will work out."

Musk is reducing his involvement in DOGE and the Republican budget bill fails to reduce spending by any meaningful amount.

Attempts to cut regulations are finding NGO's,  institutions and politicians that benefit from their complexity trying to maintain the status quo from both sides of the aisle.

Of course, the effect of tariffs on the economy is worrisome to politicians but they refuse to acknowledge it was their votes that  have placed the United States in a perilous financial position.

One must wonder the effect of continued opposition and manipulation of the courts will eventually have on  the Trump administration efforts to reduce the deficit.

The tariff negotiation gambit is leading to all types of economic paradoxes as nations react to the threats.

Politicians talk about a $36 trillion debt when in actuality the true federal GAAP debt is over 3 times that amount using a 7% discount factor.

According to Treasury's own documents as of September 30, 2024, the potential GAAP debt was in excess of $220 trillion.

When the economy is running less than $25 trillion yearly, it does not take an idiot to see the eventual problem. As Minsky said, it only takes one grain of sand ...

It is not surprising to me that Trump and Musk wonder if there is any encumbered gold left in Fort Knox. The movements of physical gold from London and into China, Japan and India the last few months must be concerning to the London gold exchange.

Our screens are finding very few quality stocks and the trading portfolio has taken a position in gold stocks but we remain over 50% in cash.

Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"

By any reasonable measure, this market is dangerous.

Be careful ....