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Market Musings

The Fed's Powell suggested at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday that interest rates might be reduced going forward. 

As a result, the markets surged upward on Friday with the DJIA making an all-time high.

Of course, many investors are counting their profits but forgetting that dollars are now worth less in purchasing power.

Moreover, lower interest rates will complicate the Treasury in selling and refinancing U.S. government bonds and notes going forward.

In 2014, $264B of 10-year notes were issued and they become due and payable this year. In 2017, $368.8B of 7-year notes also become due and payable this year.

Now add the new debt for this year and the problem should scare you as the major holders of U.S. debt, namely, China and Japan have been reducing their holdings.

Revisions to BLS employment data continues to be negative. The ADP data is probably more reliable that the BLS numbers.

Shipments of cardboard boxes continue to shrink indicating that the economy is not doing well.

Politicians fail to recognize that the major problem facing the nation is that the U.S. dollar may be about to implode.  In the first 7 months of 2025, the U.S. dollar index has fallen about 10%.

Until politicians take steps to live within their income streams, the U.S. dollar will continue to depreciate in value as inflation ravages real wages.

The effect of tariffs on the economy is worrisome to politicians but they refuse to acknowledge it was their votes that  have placed the United States in the current perilous financial position. 

Watch the price of gold, silver and copper going forward to sense what is really happening.

Politicians talk about a $37 trillion debt when in actuality the true federal GAAP debt is over 3 times that amount using a 7% discount factor.

According to Treasury's own documents as of September 30, 2024, the potential GAAP debt was in excess of $220 trillion.

When the economy is running less than $25 trillion yearly, it does not take an idiot to see the eventual problem. As Minsky said, it only takes one grain of sand ...

It is not surprising to me that Trump and Musk wonder if there is any encumbered gold left in Fort Knox. The movements of physical gold from London and into China, Japan and India the last few months must be concerning to the London gold exchange.

Although the market is moving higher, our screens are finding very few quality stocks. We went largely to cash this week in our trading portfolio.

Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"

By any reasonable measure, this market is dangerous.

Be careful ....

To review the latest FlowChart, click here.

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